As COP29’s first week draws to a close, it’s time for a hard look at the future of climate summits. The UNFCCC has been and continues to be, crucial in driving global climate ambition, and the COP process has played a critical role in creating the global climate policy framework. Without it, we would be hurtling towards an even more catastrophic 5°C warmer world. But let’s be clear, the time for endless negotiations is over. The COP must evolve and shift pledges to action, from commitments to concrete results.
With the Paris Agreement, we have achieved what many thought impossible, namely a remarkable political consensus, with over 195 countries having committed to strive to hold warming to 1.5°C. The Paris global policy framework has been elaborated with subsequent COP decisions to transition away from fossil fuels, stop deforestation by 2030, operationalise carbon trading globally, and join the Global Methane Pledge. Governments have also pledged $100 billion annually to the Green Climate Fund, and the Loss and Damage Fund is officially established.
Apart from the lack of a more rigorous decision on the phase-out of fossil fuels, almost all of the legal components to solve the climate crisis are in place. They are not perfect, but they are sufficient. There is, however, an important missing link that must be urgently addressed; the mismatch between commitment and action with the evolving climate science. This calls for a 7.5% global GHG emission reduction per year, if we are to achieve 40% to 50% reductions by 2030, and a net-zero world by 2050, and avoid a potential 3°C of warming by 2100, far exceeding the Paris goals. Next year’s task is clear. The world’s nations need to get 3 billion tons of CO2 off the global economy, to hold the 1.5°C window open. This should be the prime focus of the global COP gathering – how to ensure that this is delivered.
Remember, this shift from incremental to exponential change is not a choice or option based on opinion. If the world would have started to solve the climate challenge 29 years ago, we could have followed an incremental, linear path. But now, almost three decades later, with little to report on in terms of progress, the path for a safe landing has become extremely steep. The COP must act accordingly. We are in the midst of a global climate crisis.
The COP process is a cornerstone of global climate governance. And this is why we call for its overhaul so that it can retain its relevance in the rapidly changing climate crisis. We need a stronger and more effectively structured COP, which will bridge the gap between action and crisis. To do this, the COP must be empowered with one singular mission: the delivery of all agreed commitments at speed and scale to ensure the urgent energy transition and phase out of fossil energy.
In 2023, we called for COP reform in a letter to the Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat. Today, we reiterate and redouble our call for reform.
First, stronger criteria for COP host countries are essential, especially a demonstrated commitment to advancing the goals of the Paris Agreement. This is especially important in light of the last two consecutive Presidencies (COP28 in the UAE and COP29 in Azerbaijan), which have used the COP to advance fossil fuel business deals. These actions not only contravene UN standards of conduct for COP host countries. They seriously undermine the fundamental goals and principles of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Paris Agreement, as well as recent COP commitments to start transitioning away from fossil fuels and ensure that we move towards 1.5 degrees.
Second, COPs must also be streamlined for speed and impact. COP28 had a record-breaking 97,000 participants, including over 51,000 government negotiators. Smaller, more frequent meetings are needed. They must focus on progress, benchmarking and accountability, all of which must be aligned with the latest science and monitored by a permanent scientific advisory council.
Third, COPs must also do a better job tracking climate finance pledges. A growing proportion of the annual $100 billion pledges – despite being woefully insufficient to solve the climate crisis – are now being disbursed as interest-bearing loans to vulnerable nations. This is exacerbating current debt burdens.
Fourth, the COP should focus on the importance of urgent measures to address poverty and inequality as prerequisites to climate action. A Climate-Poverty Policy Envoy could play a key role in supporting dedicated spaces for vulnerable communities to advocate for themselves.
We also need to address the systemic imbalance in COP representation by implementing stricter controls on fossil industry participation and amplifying the representation of climate-vulnerable nations. Stronger transparency and disclosure rules must require participating companies to demonstrate alignment between their climate commitments, business practices and lobbying activities.
Tinkering at the edges of the COP reform process is not enough. The stakes are too high for incremental change. If we do not fundamentally transform the COP, we will prolong an obsolete process that will continue to fail in curbing emissions. And failure to reform the COP will further risk undermining the legitimacy of global climate diplomacy – precisely at the moment when the world needs stronger cooperation. This is why the international community must not only agree to ambition on climate finance in Baku but also act decisively with purpose and urgency to reform the COP. Only then can we deliver action at the speed and scale required for the most significant existential threat facing humanity.
