A recent study published by members of the Earth4All scientific advisory team in Journal of Evolutionary Economics sheds new light on how unsustainable economic practices lead to long-term social and environmental crises.
In The system dynamics approach for a global evolutionary analysis of sustainable development, researchers Beniamino Callegari, David Collste and Christophe Feder integrate insights from sustainability science with evolutionary economics to understand the complex feedback loops that drive global economic, social, and environmental systems. Using the Earth4All model, the authors find that if current unsustainable economic practices continue, the cumulative social and environmental stresses will create feedback loops that worsen each crisis and reduce our resilience and ability to respond. As social and environmental disruptions intensify, the model predicts a long-term decline in global economic productivity and wellbeing.
The study argues for using a system dynamics approach to capture the compounding effects of economic activities on natural and social systems over time. Rather than treating crises like climate change or social unrest as distinct issues, the Earth4All model analyses them together, showing how one worsens the other. These processes result in negative selections that produce worse outcomes in the long term – for example, firms in climate-vulnerable nations may be put out of business not due to inefficiency or a lack of competitiveness but climate-related disasters, resulting in reduced growth and greater inequality and social unrest in these areas.
This paper invites further use of system dynamics modelling in the field of evolutionary economics to understand how negative selection processes occur. It also lends weight to the call for both a rapid and systemic approach to dealing with socio-economic and environmental issues by highlighting the compounding effects of these issues and their interactions over time. By incorporating these insights into policy, there may be an opportunity to shape a more resilient and sustainable global economy.
Co-author Beniamino Callegari said “Our analysis shows that environmental and socio-economic sustainability are closely interconnected issues. Policymakers must temper green policies with broad wellbeing considerations. We hope that this article will spark further interest in the use of system dynamics in the analysis of sustainability challenges.”
Download the full article here.
