Kenya has achieved what many countries are still struggling to do. It has built an electricity system powered predominantly by renewable energy. Yet millions of households still pay some of the highest electricity prices in East Africa. Many also struggle with expensive transport and cooking fuels. Global fossil fuel price shocks continue to push up the cost of living.
How can a country with abundant renewable energy still face such a severe energy affordability crisis? This is the paradox at the heart of our new Earth4All deep-dive paper, Kenya’s Energy Paradox: Green Electricity, Expensive Energy. It reveals an uncomfortable truth. A clean electricity system does not automatically deliver affordable energy, economic security or improved wellbeing.
The real test of an energy transition is not simply how much renewable electricity a country generates. It is whether that electricity improves people’s lives, creates decent jobs, supports productive industries and protects households from economic shocks.
The lesson is not that renewable energy has failed Kenya. It is that the benefits of clean electricity have not been fairly shared. Kenya has made remarkable progress in decarbonising electricity generation. But it has not yet transformed the wider energy economy that determines what people pay, how businesses operate and who benefits from the transition.
The 2026 Middle East oil shock exposed Kenya’s continued vulnerability. The consequences quickly reached Kenya. For a country heavily dependent on imported petroleum, expensive oil quickly becomes expensive food, services and transport.
Kenya’s largely renewable electricity system helped limit its direct exposure to imported fossil fuels in power generation. But it could not fully protect the wider economy. Transport, cooking and many productive activities remain dependent on oil and other fuels. This is why renewable electrification must extend beyond electricity generation. It must reach the sectors that shape people’s daily lives.
Kenya’s high electricity tariffs are not simply the result of expensive power generation. They reflect deeper structural problems in how electricity is procured, financed, transmitted and priced. Simply installing more renewable generation capacity will not automatically solve these problems. Therefore, Kenya needs a fundamental shift in energy planning. Success should not be measured primarily through installed megawatts. It should be measured through affordability, reliability, productive energy use and improvements in wellbeing.
Kenya already has opportunities to reduce electricity supply costs without turning to new fossil fuel generation. One is regional electricity trade. Ethiopian hydropower offers Kenya access to competitively priced electricity. It can also diversify supply and strengthen regional energy security. Expanding this trade should be part of Kenya’s energy reform agenda. But it must be supported by transparent contracts, stronger transmission infrastructure and careful management of supply risks. Regional integration offers an important lesson for Africa. Energy security does not require every country to produce all its electricity independently.
Kenya faces another apparent contradiction. Some electricity generation capacity remains underutilised, yet the country faces growing pressure to meet peak demand. Installed generation capacity is therefore not the same as electricity that can reliably meet peak demand. The solution is not simply to build more power plants. Kenya must create demand when renewable electricity is available. It must also invest in flexible systems that can meet demand during peak hours.
Battery storage, pumped hydropower and regional electricity imports can help meet peak demand. They can reduce the need for new fossil fuel plants. This makes Kenya’s proposed 1.2 gigawatt liquefied natural gas power plant at Dongo Kundu particularly concerning. Such an investment risks creating a new generation of fossil fuel dependence. Imported LNG would expose Kenya to international gas prices, foreign-exchange volatility and costly long-term contracts. Before committing to the project, the government must demonstrate that Kenya’s future electricity needs cannot be met more affordably through cleaner alternatives. A long-term fossil fuel investment should not determine Kenya’s energy future without transparent public scrutiny of its costs, risks and alternatives.
Beyond the grid, clean cooking and transport electrification offer two major opportunities to improve lives and reduce fossil fuel dependence. Kenya should expand access to affordable electric cooking. This requires appliance financing, appropriate tariffs and reliable electricity connections. Electrifying motorcycles, three-wheelers, buses and other public transport vehicles would reduce dependence on imported petroleum. It would also increase demand for electricity generated from domestic and regional renewable sources.
The opportunity extends to agriculture and manufacturing. Affordable electricity can power irrigation, refrigeration, food processing and small industries. This is how renewable electricity can become a driver of industrial development.
Also, Kenya’s energy affordability crisis is a question of public finance and fairness. Temporary tax relief may be necessary during a crisis. But it cannot replace a long-term strategy to protect households from volatile fuel markets. Kenya needs to shift from repeated emergency subsidies towards lasting energy security.
Kenya’s experience carries an important lesson for the continent. The failure to share the benefits of renewable energy fairly should not be mistaken for a failure of renewable energy itself. Kenya has shown that a lower-middle-income country can build a predominantly renewable electricity system. It has done so without following the fossil fuel-intensive pathway taken by today’s wealthy economies.
But Kenya also shows that decarbonising electricity is only the beginning. Clean power must be supported by fair contracts, affordable tariffs, productive investment and social protection. It must also replace fossil fuels in transport, cooking and other economic activities.
This is the central promise of the Earth4All Giant Leap approach. Energy transition must advance alongside progress on poverty, inequality, empowerment and food systems. Kenya now faces a consequential choice. It can deepen its renewable energy advantage through regional integration, flexible electricity systems, clean cooking, transport electrification and fairer energy pricing. Or it can weaken that advantage through expensive fossil fuel infrastructure.
The choice is not between clean energy and affordable energy. It is between a transition designed to deliver shared prosperity and one that leaves households paying the price of poor planning and fossil fuel dependence. Kenya has already made remarkable progress along the clean energy pathway. The next challenge is to ensure that its people share in the benefits.
