This year’s 30th annual UN Climate Summit is situated in Belem, Brazil at the mouth of the Amazon River. As one of the most critical and threatened places on Earth, the location provides important symbolism for the urgent climate action that is needed on all fronts.
A decade has passed since world leaders gathered in Paris and pledged to keep global warming well below 2C, striving for a safer limit of 1.5C. However, the global context has changed fundamentally and is now marked by worsening climate tipping points, biodiversity loss, deepening social inequalities and geopolitical turbulence. It is no surprise therefore that climate diplomacy is becoming more complex and fragile than ever. Just like the rest of the multilateral system, the COP is facing challenges of legitimacy, relevance and capacity.
But there is good news to inspire hope. The combined leadership of the COP30 President Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago and Simon Stiell, executive secretary of the UNFCCC Secretariat, has generated unprecedented momentum toward re-configuring the COP. This ambition extends to leading the COP with science, and embedding the latest planetary boundaries research findings throughout the different negotiation tracks, including the first-ever Planetary Science Pavilion. Equally important is the COP30 Presidency’s commitment to embed equity and climate justice concerns as central pillars of the negotiations; both are essential for an energy transition that is fair, inclusive and transformative for all.
The COP Presidency and UNFCCC Secretariat are also actively championing reforms in other areas, such as stricter eligibility criteria for COP presidencies; streamlined meetings to meet the need for speed and scale; enhanced mechanisms for holding countries accountable to their climate commitments; improved climate finance tracking; and new opportunities for non-State actors’ engagement.
The latter are evident in the increase in regional climate summits, climate action weeks and through innovative forums such as the Global Citizens Assembly and the pre-COP gathering of sub-national leaders to spotlight their essential role in climate action.
The Brazilian COP Presidency’s explicit call for a society-wide mutirão (collective effort) reflects both political resolve and a grassroots mobilisation ethos, rarely seen in past COP presidencies. We support all of these reforms wholeheartedly and are excited about the new groundswell for substantive change.
But to be truly successful, COP reform must go deeper, and confront the structural and political challenges that currently threaten the multilateral climate process. We highlight three priorities.
First, we must deepen our understanding of the impact of geopolitical turbulence on the negotiations. Rising tensions between major powers, economic instability, new global threats and the resurgence of protectionist and nationalist policies are actively undermining progress and creating a more adversarial negotiating climate. This will require more sophisticated risk awareness, scenario analysis, geopolitical intelligence, data analytics and a greater commitment to embedding equity and inclusion at the COP’s core.
Second, we must deal with the consensus rule, which has allowed a small minority to block progress for over 30 years. Majority voting could be invoked as a last-resort mechanism, triggered only when all consensus efforts fail and equipped with safeguards to protect minority interests. We recognise that the change to majority voting will be extremely difficult given current political dynamics. This is precisely why we need new coalitions of progressive countries and stakeholders to highlight the cost of consensus paralysis, push for decisive reform and convince petrostates of the importance of majority voting. We need a new narrative that frames majority voting as a path to greater effectiveness.
And finally, we must turbocharge the COP30 Presidency’s important work on embedding social justice and equity in the negotiations. Earth4All’s new system dynamics modelling work shows that growing social tensions interconnect with climate risks in ways that amplify each other, fuelling rising inequality, social fragmentation and eroding trust.
The starting point must start with national governments committing to more ambitious policies that reduce inequality and social tension and empower inclusive participation. At the same time, the COP can explore creating an innovative new formal advisory body (similar to the IPCCC) that would monitor social tension and provide regular assessments.
The tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement comes at a moment of profound geopolitical upheaval. The lack of leadership from some of the world’s most powerful nations has deepened divisions in the multilateral system. This in turn has stalled the urgent, concrete action needed on the ground.
To meet the moment, the COP must now unlock its full potential as a more agile, inclusive, and science-driven institution — one capable of rising above geopolitical posturing to galvanise the political will needed to safeguard the future of humanity.
The good news is that both the UNFCCC and the Brazilian Presidency are showing possible pathways forward.
