How optimistic are you about your future? It turns out if you are living in a wealthy European or north American country then it is likely you are probably a lot less optimistic about your future than if you live in India, Indonesia, Mexico, Kenya or South Africa.
Wherever you live, your optimism likely falls off a cliff when you think about your country or the world.
These are the findings from an Ipsos survey I commissioned of G20 countries – the world’s largest economies (minus Russia and with a restricted number of questions asked in China). Globally, 62% of people are optimistic about their own future. But 80% of Indians are optimistic and this rises to 85% of Mexicans; good news for new president Claudia Sheinbaum who can ride this Mexican wave.
Anyone who has been to a city in Mexico or for that matter India, Indonesia or South Africa cannot help but feel a sense of exuberant, youthful optimism among the freewheeling chaos. This holds even in many of the most visibly deprived areas. Perhaps a decade or so of very rapid economic growth gives people a sense of possibility.
Conversely, with a major conflict on its doorstep, the rise of the far right and economic stagnation, these factors likely dent people’s optimism in Europe.
With many pessimistic about their country, in the survey we asked about political reform. Noticeably, despite Europe’s famously strong democratic principles, transparency, extremely high standards of living and extensive government services , many people want major political and economic reform. We found people everywhere are dissatisfied with the level of inequality . This may be having a destabilizing affect in Europe and elsewhere and help explain a shift to the far right who have a simple message of “tear it all down”.
If people want political reform then it is important to know what types of governance arrangements are supported. Democracy remains by far the political system most supported across the 17 G20 countries we were able to test. 81% of people agree democracy is a very good or fairly good governance system. However, we also found that 40% of people thought that a more authoritarian leadership style, where the leader does not have to bother much with parliament or elections, is a good or fairly good governance system. This is worrying. If we value democracy we have to litigate it again and again in the court of public opinion.
A plutocracy, where the wealthy and business leaders are in charge, is the least supported governance system, below army and religious rule. Of course, some argue that this is a reasonable description of the reality of democracy in the United States. Based on the data, while an effective democracy is most favoured, in the eyes of a large minority a strong-man, authoritarian leader is preferable to plutocracy.
We also asked about trust. Despite large support for democracy across the G20 there is a low level of trust in government to act in the best interests of its citizens. Only 39% of people in the G20 agree that their country’s government can be trusted to make decisions for the benefit of the majority of people, with 37% agreeing that their country’s government can be trusted to make long-term decisions that will benefit the majority of people 20 or 30 years from now. Women have significantly less trust in government than men. Across 17 G20 countries surveyed, just 34% of women trust governments to make long-term decisions for the benefit of all compared with 41% of men. And emerging economies are more trusting of their governments than wealthy nations.
We asked what policies the public support when it comes to protecting the climate. A massive 71% of people believe the world needs to take large-scale action across all sectors of the economy within the next decade. Very few people around the world believe a slow transition will work out. Those who want the fastest transition are often lving in emerging economies or who feel most exposed to climate and environmental risk.
Of course, this is at odds with political action. While many countries now have 2050 net zero climate targets, and mid-term goals in the 2030s, politicians everywhere are wobbling. We can see this in France, Germany, Sweden and the UK most obviously. Politicians are out of tune with the electorate, according to our data at least.
We tested people’s ideas about what they want from their country’s economy. In elections this year, politicians of all colours argue they have the best ideas to spur economic growth. The economic growth narrative, centered around rising GDP, is rarely questioned as a policy goal in itself. But do people see it as important? Our data suggests people would rather broaden away from such a singular focus. 68% of people in 17 G20 countries agree that the way economy works should prioritise the health and wellbeing of people and nature rather than focusing solely on profit and increasing wealth. And 62% agree that the economic success of a country should be measured by the health and wellbeing of its citizens, not how fast the economy is growing.
Why were we asking such wide-ranging questions on the economy and politics?
It is obvious that simply implementing policies to drive down greenhouse gas emissions will not be enough. We need economic and political reform. We need to strengthen democracies to weaken the grip of the wealthy elite and rebuild trust in our institutions. If people feel the government’s political economy is rigged towards the wealthy, they will, rightly, resist. A redistribution of wealth would not just pay for the transformation required but would also signal fairness and solidarity.
This is where our survey got really interesting. We asked about progressive taxation, wealth taxation, higher corporation tax and a polluter pays tax to pay for the transformation people want. The support across the G20 is sky high with 68% supporting a wealth tax.
If we find the money to pay for the transformation, then what should the priorities be? Beyond heat pumps and electric vehicles, we tested public support for a broad suite of policies that amount to a new social contract between government, businesses and citizens. Support is strongest for greening energy policies, strengthening workers rights and providing healthcare for all. Gender empowerment also polled well. Even where support was weaker, for example on universal basic income or citizens assemblies, over 50% of people support these policies across the G20.
The scale of support gives me sense of optimism that politicians can create a new narrative not about scarcity and sacrifice but about community, solidarity and opportunity.
Is it realistic to be optimistic about our future given the huge challenges facing us? I believe it is warranted.
Fifty years ago population was exploding. Now it is under control and we will probably stabilize at perhaps two or three billion more people than are alive today. This is a success.
Fifty years ago we did not know how to feed a growing population and famine was rife. Today famine is largely confined to politically unstable countries. And we know we have enough resources to feed 10 billion people a healthy diet without it costing the Earth.
Fifty years ago we did not know how to end poverty. Today poverty levels are at their lowest in human history.
And fifty years ago we did not know how to run an economy on clean energy. Now we have that knowledge and it is economically affordable. Indeed all nations can become energy independent within a generation.
Of course optimism must be tempered with realism. We really are heading for climate chaos. We will very likely cross tipping points, but if we rein in emissions now we will likely avert civilizational collapse scenarios.
And of course the chasm between rich and poor is expanding, which will ruin social cohesion and undermine solidarity. But if we rein this in too then I argue that this is the foundation of a new social contract to build the solidarity to act at scale and take a giant leap – as we advocate for in Earth4All.
Whichever path we choose we face deep turbulence and uncertainty. Even with rapid emissions cuts, we will face chaos. A more equal society is also a more resilient society. With the G20 on the cusp of a historic decision on wealth taxation, I am optimistic for our future.
